Saturday, January 5, 2019

2019 Thoughts on Cryptocurrency And A Few Predictions

I've been aware of cryptocurrency and watching how it tends to go since 2013.

Here are my current thoughts on cryptocurrency:

Ethereum will crash further than Bitcoin will percentage wise.
Bitcoin will maybe go up maybe go down.
Monero will be fairly pegged to bitcoin.
Mothership will go up in value a lot.
All other cryptocurrency is largely irrelevant.

Here is why:

Ethereum being the base of so many things built on top of it is essentially a function that amplifies market sentiment in relation to cryptocurrency as a whole which is essentially a reflection of the market sentiment in relation to Bitcoin. Right now is just the beginning of a few year period of people who do not have a long term interest in cryptocurrency or were "investing" (gambling) money they couldn't afford to lose. Because of ethereum being the backbone of a ton of speculation via people releasing projects via tokens that could only be bought with ethereum, it also had the most surface area of scammers and people who did and will continue to cash out the money people paid in Ethereum from Ethereum to Bitcoin to USD. As such, the people who are buying Ethereum are the type of "long term" (in crypto) investors who are happy to passively buy for the next few years.

Bitcoin is so big and so unpredictable that it's kind of hard to predict, hence it being unpredictable. That said, it would be reasonable to assume that for the next two to four years it will drift downwards overall with weekly or monthly periods that it temporarily jumps up or crashes down.

Monero is really the only big currency (besides dashcoin but I don't know enough about that) that has a functional use beyond speculation: buying drugs and transferring/laundering anonymously. If I had to guess I would say it might drift slightly downward in general just because in a bear market non-bitcoin cryptocurrencies are hit harder than bitcoin in general but should stay fairly closely pegged to bitcoin.

Mothership is the dark-horse and personal favorite of mine due to what it wants to do (be an exchange, be an ethereum for Europe that will lead to similar price multiplying effects that happened to ethereum, work with governments), who is on the team (established people that have experience and skill, people from actually important financial thingies and stuff), and the way it's being built (lack of hype, slow and steady, legally.)

All other cryptocurrency is irrelevant because if you look at the past cryptocurrency bubbles, very few as in one or two of hundreds of "cryptocurrencies" are actually worth anything after the crash ends in a few years and the next bubble phase begins. Crypto's main value is speculation. That's not inherently bad or good, but it does mean that stuff that focuses on "file storage", "business needs", etc are not really viable or even needed (any big corporation does financial stuff in house and fraud is a pro to people making the decisions with how to manage funds, not a negative that they're really trying to avoid.)

I could be completely wrong, and I wouldn't recommend anybody spend their money based on this, and of course this is not legal or financial advice, or an endorsement or condemnation of anything, etc etc, I am not an expert. These are just some of my thoughts and we will see how correct I am in a year. Don't gamble any money in cryptocurrency that you're not 100% ok with losing, it's an extremely speculative activity and there are too many variables that aren't even thinkable or predictable to call it safe in any respect. That's why I like it.

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